FOMO doesn’t mean ignoring risk

It can be costly to wait for the clarity that never fully arrives

For as long as I can remember, I have been a FOMO guy. A “fear of missing out” has long shaped how I spend my time. It has its downsides, including occasional bouts of exhaustion, but I wouldn’t trade it. I genuinely cannot relate to the mindset of being comfortable standing on the sidelines while things are happening.

I admitted as much on television in 2022. Markets were on their way to being down 20% during an inflation scare and the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.¹ When asked whether it was time to derisk portfolios, I responded that I was a FOMO guy who didn’t want to miss a market advance. It felt like a throwaway comment in the moment. Four years later, the same hosts still ask me if I’m still a FOMO guy. I never expected to be on television at all, let alone to have a self-admitted personality trait turn into a nickname. Brian Levitt, the FOMO guy, doesn’t quite roll off the tongue like Bill Nye, the Science Guy, but I wear it happily.

That instinct served me well again this April. Markets climbed back to all-time highs as the market assigned a growing probability of an end to the conflict with Iran.² It was another reminder that markets often move forward while the world anguishes over the news flow. Fear of missing out isn’t about ignoring risk. It’s about recognizing how costly it can be to wait for the clarity that never fully arrives.

It may be confirmation bias, but markets have historically tended to perform well in the 12 months following the onset of a geopolitical conflict , provided the economy was on a solid footing beforehand.³ The notable exceptions have been the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, when stock markets struggled in the year that followed, when inflation was already running above 7% before they began.⁴

The Middle East conflict started with the global economy still expanding⁵ and inflation expectations broadly contained.⁶ Against that backdrop, history suggests the potential for higher stock markets one year after the start of the Iran war.

Strait talk

Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said on April 17, 2026, “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.”

Well, that didn’t last long. Although on second thought, maybe the Strait of Hormuz will be open again by the time this article is published. I’m not going to try to time it, and neither should investors.

Iran’s foreign minister made the announcement that many had been hoping for and, quite frankly, that markets had already appeared to have been anticipating. While it didn’t last, the markets moved accordingly even before the statement was made. Oil prices had been falling⁷ and stocks rallied,⁸ signaling that investors were expecting a de-escalation. The confirmation helped extend what has been a solid advance in global stocks since the end of March.⁹

While we still don’t know how this will all play out, it should still serve as a reminder that the markets tend to anticipate future outcomes rather than await official announcements. By the time risks feel clearly resolved, prices have often already adjusted. Markets tend to be forward-looking and probabilistic rather than reactive or emotional.

Think piece

Think: The US stock market appears significantly overvalued.

Rethink: The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index is 20.3x, only modestly above the 10-year average of 18.9x.¹⁰

Brian Levitt is Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy & Insights at Invesco.

Notes

1. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 20, 2026, based on the 2022 peak-to-trough decline of the S&P 500 Index.
2. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 20, 2026, based on the S&P 500 Index.
3. Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty, March 31, 2024. The Caldara and Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index reflects automated text-search results of the electronic archives of 10 newspapers: Chicago Tribune, the Daily Telegraph, Financial Times, The Globe and Mail, The Guardian, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Caldara and Iacoviello calculate the index by counting the number of articles related to adverse geopolitical events in each newspaper for each month (as a share of the total number of news articles). The conflicts and the S&P 500 return 12 months after the peak in the Geopolitical Risk Index were: 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis (35.3%), 1967 Six-Day War (13.3%), 1973 Yom Kippur War (-28.8%), 1979-1989 USSR/Afghanistan (8.2%), 1982 Falkland Islands (49.1%), 1990 Iraq/Kuwait (26.9%), 1991 Persian Gulf War (22.6%), 2001 September 11 (-20.4%), 2003 US/Iraq (35.0%), 2022 Russia/Ukraine (-6.7%), 2023 Israel/Hamas (34.1). An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
4. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 30, 2026, based on the annual percent change of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
5. Source: International Monetary Fund, Dec. 31, 2025.
6. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 20, 2026, based on the 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven. A breakeven inflation rate is a market-derived estimate of future inflation, calculated by comparing the yield on a standard government bond (nominal) to the yield on a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) of the same maturity.
7. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 17, 2026, based on the price per barrel of Brent crude oil, which closed at a 2026 peak of $118 on March 31 and fell to $88 on April 17.
8. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 16, 2026, based on the return of the Russell 2000 Index (+9.54%) and MSCI Emerging Market Index (+8.04%) since March 15, 2026.
9. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 20, 2026, based on the S&P 500 Index.
10. Source: Bloomberg, L.P., April 20, 2026. Based on the price-to-forward 12-month earnings expectations of the S&P 500 Index.

Disclaimer

Contents copyright © 2026 by Invesco Canada. Reprinted with permission.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of April 28, 2026. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss.

All figures are in U.S. dollars.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may all be associated with mutual fund investments. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the simplified prospectus before investing. Copies are available from your advisor or from Invesco Canada Ltd.

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